In a troubling escalation, the government of Pakistan’s Balochistan province has imposed severe restrictions in the coastal town of Gwadar, just a day before the Baloch Raji Machi, or Baloch National Gathering, organized by the Baloch Yakjehti Committee (BYC) – also known as the Baloch Solidarity Committee – was set to commence on July 28. The BYC is a prominent civil rights movement advocating for the protection of civil, political, and economic rights, and calling for an end to enforced disappearances and custodial killings of Baloch in Balochistan.

On July 27, the Frontier Corps, a paramilitary force in Pakistan, opened fire on buses heading to Gwadar for the Baloch National Gathering, injuring at least 14 people in Mastung, about 60 km (35 miles) west of Quetta. The authorities set up blockades across the province to restrict movement, leading to further violence.

The crackdown intensified on July 28, with security forces killing at least three protesters in Gwadar and injuring dozens more. On July 29, police used tear gas to disperse demonstrators, with reports of security forces firing on protesters on the outskirts of Gwadar on July 30.

Since July 27, the Balochistan government has blocked roads and highways and cut off internet access, isolating Gwadar – a city once hailed for its potential as an emerging port similar to Dubai. Now, it stands as a bone of contention between ethnic Baloch, the federal government of Pakistan, and Beijing.

In this impoverished, dusty coastal town, which serves as a hub for the much discussed China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, China has invested a considerable amount in infrastructure and development, bringing the town into the limelight. Still, the indigenous residents of Gwadar and ethnic Baloch complain that their resources are being plundered with little benefit to them.

The Baloch have engaged in peaceful political activism against both Islamabad and China, while insurgents have also targeted Chinese interests with violent attacks. The ongoing unrest casts a shadow over the town’s future and raises concerns about its stability and the viability of Chinese investment.

In recent years, China has faced significant security challenges in Pakistan, with Baloch nationalist insurgents in Balochistan and Islamist militants in northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa frequently attacking Chinese workers. The general public also appears increasingly unhappy with Chinese investment. Since 2021, Gwadar has seen multiple large-scale protests, with residents voicing grievances about being deprived of basic civic rights and necessities of life, despite the launch of CPEC almost a decade ago.

Despite promises and grand claims that Gwadar would transform into a city akin to Shenzhen, Singapore, or Dubai, the reality remains starkly different. Today, Gwadar is still heavily dependent on neighboring Iran for electricity, while its nearly 100,000 residents rely on natural sources such as rain and traditional dams for water.

In recent months, the Baloch Yakjehti Committee has emerged as a harsh critic of Chinese investment in Gwadar. The BYC is an influential and popular group in Balochistan, largely due to its peaceful struggle for Baloch rights. It vocally addresses human rights issues plaguing Balochistan, especially enforced disappearances, custodial killings, and the exploitation of Balochistan’s resources. The BYC’s agenda resonates deeply with the Baloch public, which is why the group has earned considerable trust in Balochistan in a remarkably short time.

The BYC’s main demand is an end to enforced disappearances in Balochistan, which the group’s leadership rightly calls illegal and unconstitutional. The BYC leadership has repeatedly emphasized that people suspected of unlawful activities should face due process in a court of law under the constitution of Pakistan instead of being disappeared or killed.

The Balochistan government’s violent response to peaceful protesters last week not only violated articles 15 and 16 of the Constitution of Pakistan, which guarantee freedom of movement and the right to assemble peacefully, but also represents a failure on the government’s part to engage with one of the most popular peaceful rights movements in Balochistan.

Balochistan has been hard hit by a violent separatist insurgency for the last two decades, the longest and most violent episode in the region’s history compared to the previous four insurgencies. The toppling of the National Awami Party by Pakistan’s former Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in 1972, which kicked off an insurgency and a brutal military operation to suppress it, should have served as a hard-earned lesson against meddling in the politics of Balochistan. Instead, Pakistani rulers have embarked on even more political adventures, including forcefully disappearing political activists, banning political parties, and cracking down on peaceful rights movements.

In recent times, a popular peaceful rights movement in the form of the BYC has gained the trust and attention of not only the Baloch population – from Balochistan to Karachi and Dera Ghazi Khan in southern Punjab, where a huge population of Baloch lives – but also other political stakeholders in Balochistan, regardless of their stance on Pakistan’s parliamentary politics. Both hardline nationalists who reject Pakistan’s parliamentary politics and political parties in Balochistan deeply respect the BYC because of its considerable public support. However, the state’s attitude toward the BYC seems hostile.

BYC is highly regarded by the masses because it speaks about their genuine issues, particularly enforced disappearances that have plagued Balochistan for two decades. The failure of various governments to resolve these issues has deepened mistrust between the center and Baloch youth. This erosion of confidence in Baloch parliamentary parties has led the public to support alternate voices like the BYC, which has refrained from participating in elections or joining assemblies in Pakistan.

Despite this, the BYC has been attempting to find solutions within the framework of the constitution of Pakistan. For this reason, the group organized a month-long sit-in in Islamabad from December to January, where they were also mistreated. The abuse of Baloch women and elders by Islamabad police conveyed a disappointing and negative message, and likely served as motivation for later violent attacks in Balochistan.

Another reason the BYC has gained public trust, especially among young Baloch women, is its indirect fight against patriarchy and gender inequality, which are deeply rooted in Baloch society. For the first time, a peaceful rights movement is led by young women, who make up the majority of BYC supporters. These young women have challenged the cultural status quo and outdated traditions, as well as the power corridors in Pakistan. They have inspired ordinary Baloch by removing the fear that has long held them back.

Movements like the BYC are rare in the region, particularly because women are at the forefront. Many of these young women are driven by personal victimization; for instance, BYC organizer Dr. Mahrang Baloch, a general surgeon, lost her father to enforced disappearance. Her personal experience and commitment to the cause resonate deeply with ordinary Baloch.

Engaging leaders like Mahrang Baloch and having a political dialogue with the BYC represented a crucial opportunity for Pakistan’s political and military leadership, which has long dreamed of talking to Baloch nationalists to find a solution to Balochistan’s conundrum. However, due to a lack of political seriousness in Balochistan, this opportunity has been nearly missed.

The provincial government of Balochistan likely missed this chance deliberately, as the current government representatives in Balochistan do not believe in political dialogue. Chief Minister Sarfaraz Bugti, a staunch supporter of the powerful military and Pakistan’s former caretaker interior minister just before the elections, was brought into power through what many see as hijacked elections. This process was widely viewed as a violation of democratic principles and Pakistan’s election rules. His and his administration’s reliance on violence to address public grievances and maintain power has led some to describe them as artificial leaders, having used coercion rather than democratic processes to secure their positions.

The state’s harsh treatment of the BYC last week has only reinforced the narrative that peaceful activism has no place in Balochistan. This will ultimately benefit the Baloch separatist insurgents, who have long said that peaceful activism is futile in Pakistan. By using force against a peaceful movement with large public support, the Pakistani government risks driving more Baloch youth toward a violent insurgency.

This will, over the years, create greater challenges not only for Islamabad in tackling Balochistan’s two-decade-long insurgency and finding a solution to the province’s issues but also for China in investing in Balochistan, especially in Gwadar.